We measure the gains from phasing out coal as the social cost of carbon times the quantity of avoided emissions. By comparing the present value of avoided carbon emissions to the present value of the costs of ending coal plus the costs of replacing it with renewable energy, our baseline estimate is that the world could realize a net total gain of 77.89 trillion US dollars. This represents around 1.2% of current world GDP every year until 2100. The net benefits from ending coal are so large that renewed efforts, carbon pricing, and other financing policies, should be pursued.

The main result of the paper can be explored in this page. Additionally, you can explore the climate financing needed to phase out coal by country or region, or as an annual timeseries. Feel free to pick your own parameters to generate the results (the parameters are set to the baseline settings of the paper by default).

  75 USD/tCO2


Present value of benefits of phasing out coal (in trillion dollars) 106.92
Present value of costs of phasing out coal (in trillion dollars) 29.03
       Opportunity costs (in trillion dollars) 0.05
       Investment costs (in trillion dollars) 28.98
Carbon arbitrage (in trillion dollars) 77.89
Carbon arbitrage relative to world GDP 1.2 %
Carbon arbitrage (in dollars) per tonne of coal production 125
Carbon arbitrage (in dollars) per tCO2 55
Total coal production prevented (Giga Tonnes) 623.62
Total emissions prevented (GtCO2) 1425.55
Further temperature increase — on top of 1.1 ℃
already observed — prevented