Unit Billion dollars % of GDP Time horizon of carbon arbitrage 2030 2050 2070 2100 Coal phase out scenario Net Zero 2050 (NGFS global scenario) Coal replacement 100% solar, 0% wind 56% solar, 44% wind (42% onshore, 2% offshore) 50% solar, 50% wind (25% onshore, 25% offshore) 0% solar, 100% wind (100% onshore, 0% offshore) 0% solar, 100% wind (0% onshore, 100% offshore) Lifetime of renewable plants 30 years 50 years Investment costs fall - learning curve Learning (investment cost drop because of learning) No learning (no investment cost drop) Discount rate ρ 0% 2.8% (WACC) 3.6% (WACC, average risk-premium 100 years) 5% 8% Investment costs in energy storage Not included Short-term storage Short-term + long-term storage Coal export Disabled Enabled